Only for the Nerdiest of History Fanatics!

In this semester's history elective, one of our first week's conference discussion topics was this: "The First World War originated as two mostly separate wars brought together by the Triple Alliance's miscalculation: Austria-Hungary versus Serbia-Russia and Germany's long-standing ambition for power."  We were asked to discuss for or against this statement.

Based upon transcribed communications between Kaiser Wilhelm of Germany and his ambassador visiting various European countries during the volatile pre-WWI months, The First World War may in no way be considered the combining of two separate wars nor can the Triple Alliance be accused of any “miscalculation.”  Revelations made in the primary source “German Dispatches and the Kaiser’s Annotations” indicate that Germany and her long-time ally Austria-Hungary were in full concert regarding the Serbia dilemma.  The German ambassador, reporting directly to Kaiser Wilhelm, indicated that the Austrian king “expressed his cordial thanks for the attitude of our August Sovereign and of the Imperial Government and that he now shared our opinion completely…that a decision must be reached in order to put an end to the intolerable state of affairs in Serbia.” ¹  Kaiser Wilhelm responded that he felt the situation was “lasting too long” and that something should be done about Serbia sooner rather than later.  The ambassador revealed that Austria intended to delay taking action against the Serbs until a certain Frenchman, Monsieur Poincare, departed the region.  This information elicited a response of, “That is too bad,” from Kaiser Wilhelm. ¹

The German ambassador went on to reiterate that their other established allies (Bulgaria, Rumania, and Turkey) would honor their allegiance should Austria “administer a severe lesson to Serbia.”  Extensive communications with the English government were also conducted during this time period, communications which the Kaiser hoped would assure the powerful England’s neutrality should war occur.  As Sir Edward Gray of England was advising mediation between the troubled nations, Kaiser Wilhelm was proposing that a warning be sent to St. Petersburg (Russia being a confirmed ally of the Serbian state) and Paris (France being an enemy of Germany’s since France’s acquisition of German territory after the Franco-Prussian War) declaring “to the effect that England would not help them” in the event of war with Germany and Austria-Hungary.  England, through the voice of Sir Edward Gray, continued to declare her determination to defend the sovereignty of France and Serbia as well as the preexisting neutrality of Belgium.  Sir Edward officially declared that, “His Majesty’s Government cannot for a moment entertain the Chancellor’s proposal that they should bind themselves to neutrality on such terms.” ¹

These ongoing discussions among the governments of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and their promised allies seem to clearly indicate a framework for the conquest of Europe beginning with Serbia, her Russian allies, France, and the neutral nation of Belgium.  There does not appear to be any sort of “miscalculation” on the parts of the Austrian king and Kaiser Wilhelm nor do the wars appear to be “separate.”  Instead, one may logically argue that all proposed and executed actions were carefully orchestrated by the Germany/Austria-Hungary (with the ultimate addition of Italy) alliance in order to bring about concerted conflict and territorial expansion. 

German military research from 1905 in the form of “The Schlieffen Plan” further led the Triple Alliance to believe that Russia “was still very weak as a result of the Manchurian War” and could not mobilize her forces quickly enough to pose any real threat. ²  This belief could be considered a “miscalculation,” but since the Triple Alliance appeared committed to the idea of attacking Serbia knowing that Russia would defend her, the Alliance would clearly be required to factor Russia’s potential military might into the resulting equation.  Additionally, the Triple Alliance knew in advance that England would take up arms against them should aggressive actions be taken against Serbia, Russia, France, and particularly Belgium.  Arrogance, greed, and obsession—not miscalculation—appear to have been the Triple Alliance’s eventual downfall.

1. The World War I Document Archive, http://net.lib.byu.edu/~rdh7/wwi/1914/

    wilnotes.html (accessed September 15, 2011).

2.  The World War I Document Archive, http://net.lib.byu.edu/index.php/The_Schliffen_

     Plan (accessed September 15, 2011).